Two out of three landed over the weekend and that’s not so bad, had I not included a point for the treble as well then it would have been a profit but instead I just broke even.
Hamburg let me down and in the end they were well beaten by Mainz. They were on top until they conceded by all accounts and had they scored first maybe the outcome would have been different but that’s gone now.
Anyway, two out of three given me a bit of a confidence boost so I’ve decided to be a bit braver with my midweek Champions League selections.
Sevilla v Juventus
Juve have already qualified from Group D and Sevilla can’t reach the knockout stages. A draw for the Italian giants would guarantee top spot ahead of Manchester City but I can’t see them playing for a draw. Sevilla are good at home and need a win to get into the Europa League and as such they need to go for it, which could be their undoing.
Juve should be able to edge this one and at 21/10 they’re worth the risk.
Chelsea v Porto
Group G is on a knife edge as both Chelsea and Porto have 10 points and Dynamo Kyiv are on eight, meaning a draw at Stamford Bridge will almost certainly see all three sides finish on 11 – as the Ukrainian outfit have whipping boys Maccabi Tel Aviv at home on Wednesday – but I don’t think that will happen myself.
Chelsea are low on confidence and that defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend just demonstrated that further. I expect Porto to go for the jugular and at 16/5 they’re impossible to ignore.
Bayer Leverkusen v Barcelona
Barca are 19/20 and that’s probably because they’ve already qualified for the next round ahead of the final fixtures. Bayer need a win to stand any chance of finishing above Roma in second. The German side need to go for it and that’s a risky game to play against Barcelona, even if they rest a few of their star men. It isn’t a given but the reigning champions are worth a risk at nearly even money as far as I’m concerned.
BetVictor have the top price for Juve and Porto, with Barca at 9/10, so I’ve used them to work out the odds as a treble and that pays back 24.74 from a one point stake*. This is a bet diary rather than tips but just for my own amusement I’m keeping tabs of profit and loss.
Current profit/loss: -11.44 from 29 points spent.