You hear stories of legendary wins on FA Cup weekends, those brave/insane souls who decide to back Bradford against Chelsea or Middlesbrough against Man City. And why not? Have a punt on those crazy upsets if you want but my mind isn’t wired that way, so I’m looking to Europe again.
The FA Cup is arguably the hardest competition to bet on, I certainly find it is. The smaller teams can be well up for it, bigger teams can choose to rest players… it’s a minefield. For example, Aston Villa are odds against at Wycombe and rightly so as a Premier League team – but I’m just not confident backing a team who have won just one game this season.
My midweek Serie A bet very nearly came in, Roma were two up, then level, then winning only to concede again late on. I’m not bothering to cover profit and loss at the moment either way I’m embarrassingly down, but when I do get round to working it all out again these will be covered as singles and a treble.
Serie A; Fiorentina v Lazio
Fiorentina came in for me at Palermo on Wednesday and they should be able to down Lazio on Saturday at a best price 4/5. The visitors have won just twice on their travels this season, although that does include a win at Inter Milan in their previous away game. However, La Viola have the second best home record in the division having won seven of nine and expect them to continue their Scudetto challenge with three points on Saturday.
Carpi v Udinese
From what I’ve seen of Carpi this season they’re truly terrible, and a return to the second tier is starting to look like a case of when not if. The hosts are yet to record a home win in Serie A this season and their misery could well continue this weekend. Udinese are a little inconsistent but they head into this one on the back of consecutive victories, including a win at Torino, and at a general 6/4 they look good value.
Ligue 1;Reims v Toulouse
This is a bolder call but I’m going to pick out an away win here. Reims started the season well but have dropped off horribly with just one win since October, while Toulouse have essentially done the opposite having now recovered from a terrible start. The visitors have only managed one win away from their Stadium Municipal but having won two successive games on the road, both in cups, I’m going to back them at a top price 2/1.
As a treble that pays out at 12.5.